It's The Economy Folk's

It's crunch time people. The Dollar is way down and everyone is going down the big coaster for the ride of our lifetime. Today President Bush told us the economy is doing great just because the market is above 14 thousand, of course not taking into account any adjustment in real market value because of dollar decline. You younger readers might want to read up on the, Depression, the decline of the England after WWI to the collapse after WWII or the current real situation in Argentina. (Not what the Argentine government says) Our government, for dubious reasons, has decided to flood the markets with dollars to prop up the economy and save the mortage companies. Creating what I believe at best, will be a large recession in the next 2 years. For no sound financial reasons saving their collective broker butts, instead of letting market forces work and take a smaller recession hit now.

Take a drive around to lower middle income neighborhood and look at the huge number of For Sale signs. Bailing out the crooked mortgage houses will not let these people keep their dream. Their dream was killed by 100 dollar oil, 5 dollar milk, low paying service jobs, sky rocketing taxes and homeowners insurance becoming larger than the house payments thus eating up the small reserves in their budgets. These people are already caught up in round 1 of the upcoming recession, and seeing the landscape of the future are downsizing and consolidating now trying keep their lives together.

Every Economist that I can nail down these days from academia, the printed press or airways seems to be in agreement that we are in deep sh!t. Whether they are Classical, Keynesians, Neoclassical, Mercantilists or "whatever" all agree the world economy is heading for a fall. What they can't agree on is what will cause the cardboard house to collapse. For them it's an intellectual exorcise, to us, as like the victim of a murder, it wont matter if we were shot, poisoned or electrocuted, dead is dead.

Many of you have never seen a moderate recession or a collapse of the government I've been there and have the tee shirt (Mr. Carters 20% inflation/recession and I was living in Iran when Mr. Carter allowed that debacle too) This kind of calamity is like a slow-motion train wreck, just like the current situation you get plenty of warning. During Mr. Carters recession I graduated from Tech Collage and took a job with MCI. Though it payed less money than others, because company was expanding and I figured it would be able to ride it out. It did, the company had our hours cut to 32 a week but we kept our jobs. When I lived in Iran the writing was literally on the wall (even a dumb 19yr old could read it) and we had plenty of time to get out before the SHTF. My father flew out the day of the first big riots in Tehran and we had left a month prior to him. So the only Americans I feel sorry for over in Iran after that were the poor Service Joe's who were ordered to stay, the rest of the U.S. citizens were their for the $$$.

What to do? I'm not a survivalist I have never even played one on TV. I'm set up for local emergences, fire, hurricane, a fast bug out if needed and the like. I'm paying off any revolving credit 1st, ditching any fun stuff and nonessentials (my motorcycle, the kids Bush Gardens passes, going to basic cable, the older kids cell phones,etc)to build up my reserves of currency. I'm also getting everything shipshape on the house, if money gets out of control what would normally just be a pain in the ass could end up as a major family problem. Things like laying in a lot of supplies in the hurricane closet, adding a socket to our well to run the pump off the generator, looking around to pickup a good used 3way fridge (gas 12v 110ac) out of a old travel trailer are on my planning list. I've lived in the 3^rd world and have a handle on how to live that life. Many of you haven't, all I can say is start small and basic (water, shelter, food and safety) a good, completed, small plan is better than any daydream retreat on a island. Once you've completed your core plan build on it in stages you can finish. Please learn how to use the gear you purchase I once went on a canoe trip with some friends who had a brought brand new tent still in the box, minus 2 of the poles. The Internet is wonderful source of good material and bad advice. The id10t's are pretty easy to spot and usually flock together.

What's my largest worry is the potential for civil unrest. When you read that no government is more than 3 meals away from a revolution, believe it like it came from your holy book. The United States had it's last Great Depression 79 years ago, back then 80% of the population lived in the country and as my Grandfather told me “we might have still been a little hungry after dinner but we dint starve like folks in town”. We are a urban/suburban society now and the distribution of necessities will be done with the typical government efficiency. (remember hurricane Andrew and 13 years later after FEMA had been FIXED, Katrina) When people cant feed the kids they become desperate quickly and will do rash things. The Mob starts on desperation and runs on frustration and only stops when that frustration is slaked. I remember one of the lines from the movie BRAZIL “were all in it together” and indeed we will be.

So the biggest thing I'm formalizing is the arrangements for the family if we decide to get the kids out or leave the homestead in the city. My cousins and I have always joked “if the SHTF head to Fort Westmoreland”, which is now the family homeplace in the Appalachian mountains, it my be coming to that. This Thanksgiving when we are all gathered up in the mountains for my Mom and Dad's 50^th wedding anniversary will be the time for us to start laying some serious plans for the future of all our families.

If I'm wrong whats the worst that could happen? I'll have all the things knocked off the honey-do list and we'll have more cash in the safe to buy that retirement property up in the mountains. If I'm right................I hope you make it through ok, too..........

Stoneknives